Oscar's Grind

February 20, 2026

ideas economics

Oscar’s grind is a betting system used for wagers with approximately even-money outcomes, meaning the payout equals the amount staked.

The system is a positive progession betting system, meaning that we increase bets after wins. A progression is a rule for adjusting bet size based on previous outcomes.

The objective of the system is to win one unit of profit per session by gradually increasing bet size after wins while maintaining the same stake after losses.

Algorithm

unit := 1
betsize := unit
profit := 0

repeat
    bet
    if bet_won then
        profit := profit + betsize
        if profit < unit then
            if profit + betsize + unit > unit then
                betsize := unit − profit
            else
                betsize := betsize + unit
    else
        profit := profit − betsize
until profit = unit

Oscar’s Grind divides play into sessions. Each session starts with a wager of one unit, and ends when a net profit of one unit is reached.

After a loss, the wager stays the same. After a win, the wager increases by one unit, providede that doing so doesn’t exceed the one unit session profit target.

If the next standard increase would result in more than one unit of profit, the wager is adjusted to reach exactly one unit of profit in the case of a win.

This process is repeated until we reach the session goal or exhaust our funds.

Example

Bet sizeResultProfitComment
1Loss−1Bet size stays the same
1Loss−2Bet size stays the same
1Loss−3Bet size stays the same
1Loss−4Bet size stays the same
1Loss−5Bet size stays the same
1Win−4Bet size is 2 units now
2Loss−6Bet size remains 2 units
2Win−4Bet size increases to 3 units
3Win−1Only 2 units needed to achieve profit
2Win1Session ends